Giants at Marlins MLB Pick for May 29
Tuesday brought us Game 1 of a head-to-head series featuring the 2 worst teams the National League has to offer. The Miami Marlins, whose .346 winning percentage is the lowest mark in the NL, pounded out 14 hits on their way to an 11-3 rout of the San Francisco Giants.
The loss dropped the Giants to just 21-32 on the year, which has them comfortably last in the NL West, 5 games south of the Colorado Rockies. San Francisco has now lost 6 consecutive games, which is the longest losing skid in the majors, and their run differential of minus-88 on the year bests only the Orioles (minus-109) and Royals (minus-96).
However, we actually have a couple of decent pitchers taking the mound in Game 2. The resurgent Madison Bumgarner will climb the hill for the visitors opposite right-hander Pablo Lopez for the Fish.
|2019 ATR Home||9-19-0||12-15-0|
|2019 ATR Away||13-12-0||11-14-0|
|2019 O/U Home||15-11-2||14-12-1|
|2019 O/U Away||13-12-0||8-16-1|
Long Road Ahead for Giants
It wasn’t that long ago when the Giants were winning the World Series every other year. However, it sure feels like ancient history at this point. San Francisco still has a few holdovers from the championship teams (Bumgarner, Buster Posey, Bruce Bochy, etc.), but the magic of those title-winning squads has clearly evaporated.
Now, the Giants have baseball’s oldest roster with no clear path toward improving. The Los Angeles Dodgers have reigned supreme in the division for the better part of the last decade, and there’s a decent chance San Francisco finally decides to part ways with some of their mainstays. Bumgarner, who is in the final year of his current deal, seems like the most likely to be traded.
MadBum has dealt with injuries over the last couple of seasons, but he has looked good so far in ‘19. His 4.10 ERA doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but his 3.76 SIERA shows that there has been some back luck involved in that ERA to this point. The 44.6 percent hard-hit rate is too high, which helps explain the lofty .312 BABIP against him.
The former World Series MVP has upped his strikeouts to 24.9 percent on the year while cutting his walk rate to just 4.6 percent. He’s been more of a fly ball pitcher so far this season, which is a skill that should help him tonight at spacious Marlins Park. Marlins Park is even more pitcher-friendly than his home ballpark, and he’ll be facing a miserable Marlins lineup.
Miami had a big night on Tuesday, but this is a team that has still only hit 39 home runs all season. The Marlins will likely throw 9 right-handed hitters at Bumgarner, which isn’t ideal, but this team still has an MLB-worst .261 wOBA on the season against left-handed pitching. They don’t strike out as much as we might like against southpaws (19.8 percent), but it is still an excellent spot for MadBum overall from a run prevention perspective.
The Marlins don’t have much by way of offense, but they do quietly have an interesting young rotation. Caleb Smith has been one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball this season, and Trevor Richards neutralized this Giants offense last night.
Tonight, Lopez will take the ball for the 11th time on the season. The right-hander’s 5.40 ERA is a bit bloated, but his 3.95 SIERA tells a different story. Lopez has been victimized by a .301 BABIP, and his ERA is inflated by one particularly bad outing in which he gave up 10 runs in just 3 innings against the Mets a couple of weeks ago. Lopez hasn’t allowed more than 4 earned runs in any other start.
The Giants have the third-worst offense in the majors in terms of wOBA (.284) against right-handed pitching this season, but they do have a couple of left-handed hitters that could give Lopez trouble. Lopez has allowed a .318 wOBA to lefties on the year.
While I doubt this is a spot in which Bumgarner will rack up a bunch of strikeouts, it’s also hard to imagine the Marlins doing a ton of damage against him. Facing a bunch of righties won’t help, but the fact that most of said righties are largely devoid of much prowess at the plate bodes well for the Giants’ starter.
I think there’s value in taking San Francisco on the moneyline here at -120. The Giants haven’t been a profitable team all season long, but it’s not often they will face a team that is straight-up worse than they are. The Marlins are one of the few that fits the bill.
I like the Giants to win this game outright. Betting on San Francisco to cover the runline at +145 is the better play for upside, but the safer bet is to take the Giants on the moneyline.
$100 stake could win...